Serbian PM Vojislav Koštunica to resign, early elections on May 11th

[Draco]

• BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Serbia's PM Kostunica stands down
• Serb PM dissolves government - CNN.com

Is this a good or a bad thing (for Serbia)? Who is likely to be next PM?

[Draco]

news.ert.gr - World - Kostunica Steps Down

[petros1978]

Draco,

i have finished talking with a friend of mine who lives in Nis. Things according to him will get pretty messy. The Nationalist PM Kostunica will try to capitalize on the anger and disatisfaction of the Serbs concerning the policy that certain E,U, members follow on the Kossovo issue.

They know they have lost Kossovo but now i think it is all about alliances.
Kostunica probably prefers Russia while Tadic opts for a more European orientation. Poor serbians will have to face another political crisis accompnied by various accusations about traitors, etc.

In a time when their nation should be standing as one they chosed to argue.

The perfect chance though for the E.U. to act and support their champion. If they - we are serious about Serbia we must provide every possible assistance to them. The sooner they come inside EU the better chance we stand on the US vs Russia competition.

[Vasiliye]

Koštunica will join Šešelj / Nikolić's Radicals, with whom he'll have 70-80% majority.The polite defeatist, Nice Guy Tadić is politically dead.It was this way or Coup the Etat.

Serbia will never join NATO, never.Nor EU, although Koštunica leaves the option open.The new Government shall invite the Russian and maybe propose unification with Russia, a possibility deemed plausible by the top Serbian military analysts. In that case Russia, although it is physically unable to send the troops to Kosovo, could use all its forces at its disposal, and any case of NATO doing 1999 to Serbia again is likely to mean Russia-NATO warfare.


Allow me to be a little bit blood-chilling: Russian doctrine explicitly allows for a first-strike Limited Theater Nuclear Warfare as a warning and deterrent against Total Nuclear War if it see herself or her allies threatened, let alone attacked.We are talking about a state which has 2 tons of dynamite equivalent per every human on the planets in nuclear weapons and which is disillusioned and encircled after what may have been a disbandment of NATO as a good will policy, in light of West overwhelming Economic and to sightly lesser level, technological and scientific superiority.

The latter scenario may seem overstreched, but the things are definitely going to get rough.

[Draco]

Serbia has on many occasions expressed its wish to join the Union. In 1999, the parliament of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia voted for the country to join the Union. In 2007, Tomislav Nikolic (deputy leader of the Serbian Radical Party) during his speech said he wished for Serbia to strengthen ties with the union and eventually join the Union.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_o...ia_and_Belarus

Union of Russia and Belarus sounds like a counter-EU. The project seems to be dead though, unless it can be resurrected.

[Vasiliye]

Originally Posted by Draco

Union of Russia and Belarus sounds like a counter-EU. The project seems to be dead though, unless it can be resurrected.

Yeltsin was a corrupted Liberal Democratic Westernizer, slightly pseudo, which believed that Russia was just another European country, fit for NATO/EU membership after prolonged shock therapies which have prooven catastrophic.

Milošević was a Castroist/Social Democrat with belief in mixed economy and etatism, skilfull opportunism blended with quasinationalist populism.

These guys hated each other.

Yet radical Nationalistic Slavophile and Conservative Right-Centrist Slavophille are more in lines with Assertive Russia with Ideology of "Russian Uniqueness as a whole",with boosted economy and emphasis on values v. liberalism are more matching each other.

Nikolić officialls calles for establishment of Russian bases in Serbia.Both nation are Slavic, a peasant from Šumadija may perfectly understand a Russian from Port Artur.These are one of us. Again,there is no way to actually send Russian army there.

What Nikolić proposes is a federal integration with Russia, with two complementary Serbian governments, one in Moscow and one in Russia, in order to both avoid decapitation strike and to put oneself firmly in legal and protocolary position whereby attack on Serbia means war with Russia by default.

Nikolić as a direct populist, less charismatic and educated than Šešelj, but more no-nonsense man and Koštunica as the more sophisticated, versatile, less harsher but essentially on the same principles, complement each other on this strategic issue: permanent secession of Serbia from Euroatlantism, with interest to, in a cold manner, cooperate with the Europe (but not the Anglosaxon World) on state-to-state basis.This include strong support for UN.

Asking NATO membership is out. Keeping EU as an option is a tactical attitude, which is in reality contradictory to the directions which crystallizes in Belgrade.

[Draco]

Originally Posted by Vasiliye

What Nikolić proposes is a federal integration with Russia, with two complementary Serbian governments, one in Moscow and one in Russia, in order to both avoid decapitation strike and to put oneself firmly in legal and protocolary position whereby attack on Serbia means war with Russia by default.

Do you think Russians can help Serbia regain Kosovo? As much as I hate to admit it, I think Kosovo is lost. Serbia might as well make the most of the situation and try to achieve secession of Republika Srpska, reunification with Montenegro (or the Serb parts of it) and annexation of north Kosovo. Unfortunately, USA are totally opposed to all of these, so Russian help would be necessary. Is Russia prepared though for such adventures? If not, there is no point in uniting with Russia. Russia can't offer anything else to Serbia, they can't offer economic prosperity, they can only offer isolation, poor governance and poor human rights.

[Vasiliye]

The point is to leggally annex Serbia to Russia.Serbs don't care for eventual EU benefits.EU is not a charity company, regardless of the extensive program for facilitation increase in quality of life in the latest members.Serbs are viscerally opposed to federations, with cohabitation with "Nekrst i Nesoj" (Lit. Noncross and Unkindred", regardless of the much more elaborated EU statutary and normative foundation which to a large part makes Members roughly equal v. the discrepancies of geography, demography, economic, social and scientific developement.

But NATO is not the reverse, but the averse of the medal called EU.Kosovo is not lost, only temporarily absent.Bombing Belgrade in federation with Russia will equal bombing St. Petersburg by NATO.It is a cryptic conflict, I realize that my layman predictions of wider escalation, which may be avoided only if NATO leaves Albanians to us (after which the party begins) and minds its bussiness elsehwere in the post 9/11 World seem like an overstretched scenario for a dispute over such little area, but it was a drop in the full glass.

So it was never the idea that Russian tanks will role to Priština.It is the idea to give the existing Serbian tanks flag of Russia and see shall America risk, for example a single non-warhead engaged Russian ICBM launching to Diego Garsia (they can detect launch in seconds, but will not retaliate, but wait and see) followed by ultimatum, if they dare to briefly violate Serbian airspace, let alone attack.

Thats the idea.Legal union first, Serbian action second, US hand washing from the entire affair third.

Koštunica played the good cop-bad cap tactics with Tadić, has seen that it caused massive revulsion among Serbs, understood that civil reintegration of Kosovo mediated by the arbitrage of its Western creators is impossible after recognition by the Big Players, that while the UN should be stood up, appealing to Law first, tha Organization is powerless due to constant Anglo-US subversion of it in the wake of Unilaterism and Messianism by USA, and signed him off, the most logical partner being Radicals, which enjoy over 40% among Serb electorate.

[Draco]

So basically, Nikolić is proposing invading Kosovo and believes that if Serbia and Russia are united, then USA will not want to declare war on Russia-Serbia-Union and if it does, Russia will be obliged to defend Serbia?

There are problems with this plan though: a) we're not sure Russia supports this idea (it sounds like provoking WWIII, you'd understand why they'd be skeptical), and b) occupying Kosovo will be met with resistance by its inhabitants (it'd be easier to occupy Montenegro and FYROM). There is also of course the possible effect of polarizing the world into pro-NATO and pro-Russia-Serbia-(China?) camps. You could argue of course that since Israel has been doing this for such a long time and getting away with it, why can't Serbia?

[Draco]

Makfax vesnik - Kostunica, Nikolic agree on post-election coalition