Is Obama's momentum unstoppable?

[Truth Bearer]

Is Obama's momentum unstoppable?
By John Zogby
Pollster and independent political analyst


Has Barack Obama won the Democratic presidential nomination?


It is certainly tempting to make this conclusion based on his amazing string of victories on Saturday and Tuesday evening.
But the short answer to the question has to be no.

Senator Obama has now more states than his rival, Senator Hillary Clinton, including the last six (plus the Virgin Islands and the national capital, Washington DC) and he now leads among delegates pledged to vote for him at the Democratic National Convention.

In addition to his momentum of victories, he has made significant inroads into constituencies that were the core of his opponent's support.

Thus, in Virginia and Maryland, exit polls revealed that he tied with Senator Clinton among white voters, and actually defeated her among women, lower-income voters, rural voters, those over 65 years of age, Catholics, and Hispanics.

Swing groups

Those numbers are very important because they show the meaning of momentum, which is so vital to understanding the primary process, and because they take away one of the main arguments that has been used against Mr Obama: that he is the African-American candidate who has more limited appeal than Mrs Clinton with mainstream voters.

Mr Obama's victories are becoming numerous and sizeable.

In addition to expanding his political base among African Americans and young voters, he also has consistently demonstrated a greater appeal than Mrs Clinton among independents and moderates, swing groups that will give shape to the general election in November.


There is also an almost cult-like quality to Obama's following



This in itself is a powerful argument for Obama's nomination, because the Democratic nominee will likely face Republican Senator John McCain, who is very popular among centrist voters.

Above all, Obama generates an intense and growing level of emotion among young voters.

They are voting in record numbers in the primaries and can make the difference between victory and defeat for him in November.

'Clinton fatigue'

On the other side, Senator Clinton's campaign has been going through a rough patch.

She is having difficulty raising money, she has accepted the resignations of both her campaign manager (a Hispanic woman and long-time aide whose departure has not gone down well among Hispanics) and deputy campaign manager.

Her staff are already pointing fingers of blame at each other - never a good sign when so much positive energy is needed.

Perhaps more than anything else, there is a growing feeling of "Clinton Fatigue" among insiders and ordinary voters.


After all, a voter in November 2008 has to be at least 42 years old to have voted in a general election in which a Bush or a Clinton did not emerge as the victor.

And finally, there are almost 800 "super-delegates" - elected officials or Democratic party leaders - who also get a vote at the convention.

A key question: why aren't these establishment types already backing Senator Clinton?

Why are they waiting until the last minute?

To me, that speaks volumes.

'Formidable'

On the other hand, this deal is not closed.

At this time of writing, the two candidates are nearly tied among pledged delegates, and even if Obama wins all of the remaining states with 55% of the vote, he still falls short of the 2,025 total delegates he needs to secure the nomination.

Meanwhile, Clinton would continue to rack up almost the same number of delegates based on proportional voting.

Clinton is formidable.

She is after all a Clinton - she and her husband are popular, dogged, able campaigners.

She has been a successful senator and has core support among older women and Hispanics, both of whom can propel her to victory in Texas and Ohio and get her campaign rolling again.

There is also an almost cult-like quality to Obama's following.

He generates a lot of heat and excitement - but can he sustain it?

Will the press continue to love him tomorrow?

And if negative (or at least not glowing) stories begin to appear in rapid succession, will his supporters still be so enthusiastic?

So the nomination battle is far from over.

But - at least for now - Obama has truly taken his campaign much further than his opponents ever believed possible.


John Zogby is the President and CEO of Zogby International, an independent polling company in the US.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/h...as/7243036.stm

Published: 2008/02/13 14:36:27 GMT

© BBC MMVIII

[Truth Bearer]

Obama wins primaries clean sweep
Barack Obama appears to be on a winning streak
Barack Obama
Illinois Senator Barack Obama looks set to overtake his rival, Senator Hillary Clinton, in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
In the latest round of primaries, Mr Obama has clinched Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

But neither has secured enough party delegates to secure the nomination to contest November's presidential poll.

For the Republicans, Senator John McCain is on course to win all three races, beating rival Mike Huckabee.

With eight consecutive primary wins behind him, Mr Obama is beginning to look formidable and the manner of his victory on Tuesday looks ominous for Mrs Clinton, says the BBC's North America editor, Justin Webb.

Halfway there

"Tonight we're on our way," Mr Obama told supporters in Wisconsin, which will hold the next primary on 19 February.


Mrs Clinton, who has recently lost a number of key staff, indicated she would be focusing on the races in Ohio and Texas in March as her best hope to retake the lead.

"We're going to sweep across Texas in the next three weeks," she said, making no mention of the three contests she lost.

"I'm tested, I'm ready, let's make it happen," she told supporters.

Each Democratic candidate is about halfway to winning the 2,025 delegates needed to secure victory at the party's national convention in August.

With most of the Tuesday's votes counted, Mr Obama has edged into the lead with 1,223 delegates to Mrs Clinton's 1,198 delegates, according to the Associated Press news agency.

Mrs Clinton's deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, reportedly stepped down on Monday, in a shake-up coming only a day after her campaign manager left.

Meanwhile Mr McCain, who holds a strong lead over his Republican rival Mike Huckabee, told supporters he was "fired up and ready to go".

Significant lead

With results counted in almost all of Virginia's precincts, Mr McCain led by 50% to Mr Huckabee's 41%.

In the District of Columbia, Mr McCain took 68% of the Republican vote to 17% for Mr Huckabee, with almost all the votes counted. Congressman Ron Paul took 8%.


We are approaching the end of the first half of this election on quite an upswing
John McCain John McCain


Mr McCain's victories mean he extends his significant lead in terms of the number of delegates who will vote for him at the party's national convention.

But correspondents say Mr McCain still has some work to do to unite his party, amid continuing criticisms from leading party members who have questioned his conservative credentials.

Mr Huckabee has been under pressure to stand aside for the sake of party unity, but has said he has no intention of pulling out.

Exit polls suggest he won the support of very conservative voters in Virginia by nearly three to one, while Mr McCain was backed by somewhat conservative and moderate Republicans.

Broad appeal

In Virginia, Mr Obama was leading by 64% to Mrs Clinton's 35.5%, with almost all precincts reporting.

His margin of victory was even greater in Washington DC, where he led by 75% to 24% with almost all the votes counted.


NEXT CONTESTS
19 Feb: Wisconsin (bi-party), Hawaii caucus (D)
4 March: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont (bi-party)


Analysts suggested the most significant aspect of Mr Obama's success was his broadening appeal across different demographic groups.

Exit polls conducted for AP in Virginia suggested Mr Obama had won the support of two-thirds of men and almost six in 10 women.

Mr Obama also made gains with women voters, who have been a core constituency for Mrs Clinton in past contests, and with white men and Latino voters.

And nine in 10 black voters in Virginia backed the Illinois senator, an even bigger margin than in previous primaries.

The economy was the top issue for both Democratic and Republican voters in the so-called Potomac primary, named after the river that runs through the two states and the nation's capital.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/h...as/7240399.stm

Published: 2008/02/13 08:09:06 GMT

© BBC MMVIII