The Solution to the Kosovo Problem: Partition Within a Partition

[Makedonia25]

The Solution to the Kosovo Problem: Partition Within a Partition

Ivan Eland

Ivan Eland is Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Peace & Liberty at The Independent Institute. Dr. Eland is a graduate of Iowa State University and received an M.B.A. in applied economics and Ph.D. in national security policy from George Washington University. He has been Director of Defense Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, and he spent 15 years working for Congress on national security issues, including stints as an investigator for the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Principal Defense Analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. He also has served as Evaluator-in-Charge (national security and intelligence) for the U.S. General Accounting Office, and has testified on the military and financial aspects of NATO expansion before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and on CIA oversight before the House Government Reform Committee.

Dr. Eland is the author of the Independent Institute books "The Empire Has No Clothes: U.S. Foreign Policy Exposed," and "Putting 'Defense' Back into U.S. Defense Policy," as well as "The Efficacy of Economic Sanctions as a Foreign Policy Tool."

February 05, 2008

Now that the deadline has passed without an international agreement on the future of Kosovo—the Serbian province that has enjoyed autonomy under the tutelage of the United Nations since the NATO-Serb war of 1999—a showdown in the U.N. Security Council looms. No matter what the outcome of Wednesday´s debate, don´t be surprised if Kosovo, with the support of the Western powers, declares its independence. Such a provocative action would anger Serbia and its ally Russia, and could cause a resumption of violence there.

Since 1999, the province has been governed autonomously from the Serb central government by the Muslim Albanian Kosovars, who constitute 90 percent of the population. Naturally, the Serbian government is concerned about the future of the minority Serb population in an independent Kosovo.

A study of past partitions and secessions, however, might allay Serb fears. Historically, when only a small minority lives in a majority area, much less violence results, because the majority isn´t threatened. Only when a large minority is present do both factions become nervous. Each side may arm to defend itself, triggering additional fears of attack, and war may ensue. For example, following 1921, when majority-Protestant Northern Ireland was partitioned from predominantly Catholic Ireland, decades of violence ensued in Northern Ireland, because the substantial minority of Catholics (more than one-third of their population) presented a security threat to the Protestants, and vice versa. But in Ireland, Protestants numbered less than 10 percent, and have lived in peace with the Catholics during that period.

Although there has been tension and sporadic violence between the Kosovar Serbs and Albanians, Kosovo´s Serb minority is likely small enough to avoid major security anxiety by the Albanian majority. In addition, the international community has demanded that Albanians provide substantial security guarantees for the Serb minority.

A greater problem may be the fact that many Serbs regard Kosovo as the cradle of their civilization. In the Middle Ages, Serb civilization was centered in the province; Serb religious and historical shrines remain there, including Gazimestan, the site of an important battle lost to the Turks.

History shows that nationalities often are less willing to trade off or substitute for land of such "intangible" value than they might be to trade economically or strategically valuable land. So the Serbs may feel compelled to fight over these sites. They have certainly been unwilling to acknowledge the independence of Kosovo, despite international pressure.


The Russians have hinted that in the partition of Kosovo from Serbia, Kosovo should also be partitioned, and the land with the Serb shrines should be returned to Serbia. Predictably, the Albanian majority rejects this idea, because they want the biggest country possible. Less understandably, the U.S. and its European allies reject it too. They want to defend prior boundaries, contain Serbia, and play hardball with Serbia´s Russian ally. This stance is unwise.

A more stable, long-term solution is to adjust the border so that Serbia can retain some—if not most—of these critical historical and religious sites. Although the new state of Kosovo would be slightly smaller, it would be more secure against its stronger Serb neighbor. For security purposes, Kosovo would not have to be a ward of the U.S. and Europe. Such a settlement might avoid a future Serb-Kosovo war that could escalate to a confrontation between the U.S. and Russia—two nuclear-weapon states.

Although merely redrawing the current Serb-Kosovo border to incrementally expand Serb-controlled lands is preferable, more creative gerrymandering might be possible. A Kosovo partitioning wouldn´t necessarily need to give Serbians land contiguous to Serbia. In that case, any important non-contiguous Serb shrines surrounded by the new Kosovo could be protected by the U.N.

Also, the Serbs might have to compromise on which historical or religious sites would be reabsorbed into Serbia. Less important sites might have to be ceded to the new country of Kosovo.

This partition of Kosovo, within the partition of Kosovo from Serbia, would give the new state the best chance for a long-term stable relationship with its powerful neighbor. As in Palestine, giving up land for peace is the right path to long-term stability and security. But in both parts of the world, dispassionate analysts can define fairly well where a political settlement would end up, but cooling red-hot historical animosity to get there is another thing entirely. A start down that road in Kosovo would be to drop U.S. objections to the "partition inside a partition" approach.

http://www.losangeleschronicle.com/articles/51429

[TirAlb]

Ridiculous,and im going to write smth about Timor Est,for sure i know more about,that him about Kosova!

[Draco]

I think partition of Kosovo makes sense. I mean considering that international law doesn't apply any more, why need the province be treated as a single unit in this case? If there is an overriding blanket right to self-determination, why can't the Serbs of Kosovo have it? Are the Albanians of Kosovo the only ones entitled to self-determination.

To be frank, I suspect that should independence of Kosovo be inevitable, partition is Belgrade's plan B. They just don't want to support it officially in case it's taken as consent for the Albanian parts to go independent.

[Tsontos]

Independence without partition would just be plain ludicrious given the whole idea behind independence is supposedly "Self determination".

[Morphesau]

I don’t agree with carving Kosovo from Serbia, being a Serb province. If they get independence then this will pave the way for other troubled regions.

It can only guarantee more Balkan conflicts in future. Off cource there is the U.N resolution 1244 ? which Russia and China will be using to Veto in the U.N. Seems the E.U is going on collision course with the U.N ???? My geuss it'll end like Cypres.

[TirAlb]

Kosova is a disticnt entity for more than 50years know.If you change the borders of kosova then you will have to change serbias borders as well.There are 60'000 albanians living in south serbia.The west intentions are evident,they don't want to reward crimes and ethnic cleansing policies.They did so in bosnia and will try to do the same in Kosova.Serbias war was lost,and now they will just pay the price,for their defeat..

[Morphesau]

Lie

Originally Posted by TirAlb

Kosova is a disticnt entity for more than 50years know.If you change the borders of kosova then you will have to change serbias borders as well.There are 60'000 albanians living in south serbia.The west intentions are evident,they don't want to reward crimes and ethnic cleansing policies.They did so in bosnia and will try to do the same in Kosova.Serbias war was lost,and now they will just pay the price,for their defeat..

Truth

Originally Posted by Makedonia25

[b]
February 05, 2008

Now that the deadline has passed without an international agreement on the future of Kosovo—the Serbian province that has enjoyed autonomy under the tutelage of the United Nations since the NATO-Serb war of 1999—a showdown in the U.N.

Enough said.....

[Draco]

Originally Posted by TirAlb

Kosova is a disticnt entity for more than 50years know.If you change the borders of kosova then you will have to change serbias borders as well.There are 60'000 albanians living in south serbia.The west intentions are evident,they don't want to reward crimes and ethnic cleansing policies.They did so in bosnia and will try to do the same in Kosova.Serbia war was lost,and now they will just pay the price,for their defeat..

WTF? Don't try to assume the moral high ground here, any secession of Kosovo without Belgrade's consent is illegal and will have been implemented solely by means of brute force (the have an expression in Greek applicable here: το δίκαιο της πυγμής / the justice of the fist). The only reason given which attempts to justify flouting law like this is the fact that the Albanians want independence. Well you can't pick and choose which laws you want to follow and which not.

As law seems to be irrelevant to Kosovo issue, naturally, once the Albanians declare independence the Kosovo Serbs will refuse to recognize it and the Serb areas will continue to function as part of Serbia. As "independent" Kosovo will be just another in the list of illegal states (along with Taiwan, Northern Cyprus etc) this will be the defacto situation: Kosovo is legally part of Serbia with the Albanian parts of Kosovo functioning as though they are an independent state and behaving accordingly. There will be no way to include the Serb areas of Kosovo into "independent" Kosovo other than by employing the same means Milosevic did. While I wouldn't put it past the Albanians to do this, I have a feeling they won't because it'll be a public relations disaster for them.

[TirAlb]

WTF? Don't try to assume the moral high ground here, any secession of Kosovo without Belgrade's consent is illegal and will have been implemented solely by means of brute force (the have an expression in Greek applicable here: το δίκαιο της πυγμής / the justice of the fist). The only reason given which attempts to justify flouting law like this is the fact that the Albanians want independence. Well you can't pick and choose which laws you want to follow and which not.

It was inplemented with the brute force indeed.Remember the nato bombing?Were Serbs that started everything and ended in the way we know.

As law seems to be irrelevant to Kosovo issue, naturally, once the Albanians declare independence the Kosovo Serbs will refuse to recognize it and the Serb areas will continue to function as part of Serbia. As "independent" Kosovo will be just another in the list of illegal states (along with Taiwan, Northern Cyprus etc) this will be the defacto situation: Kosovo is legally part of Serbia with the Albanian parts of Kosovo functioning as though they are an independent state and behaving accordingly. There will be no way to include the Serb areas of Kosovo into "independent" Kosovo other than by employing the same means Milosevic did. While I wouldn't put it past the Albanians to do this, I have a feeling they won't because it'll be a public relations disaster for them.

I don't think it will end like taiwan an cyprus(both islands).Kosova will be just some kind of natural extension of albania,no customs(a sort of schengen),they will use our ports for free,same school programs,probably they will follow the albanian development trend.And when the Durres-Prishtina highway will be finished(april 2009) we will be de facto united.Yes they will have to protect and control their borders,and serbs inside can do what ever they want.They are quite a small comunity,they can survive only if they try to integrate,if no they will emigrate to serbia in the years to come,to create a better life,like albanians in south serbia are emigrating to Kosova.In brief theres no need to repeat Milosevic policies.With Usa and worlds major states recognising the independence,with the rich undergrounf and favourable rilief they have and with albania just at the next door,i think their future wont be so dark.

[TirAlb]

Originally Posted by Morphesau

Lie



Truth



Enough said.....

I think its more,Truth,Truth and you Didn't Said Nothing.
Kosovas history didn't started just in 1999.