Price of Oil - a big problem.....

[Mygdonia]

I trade infrequently...but to my own stupidity I thought oil was to fall a few dollars after peaking at the fibonacci extention @ 1.618.

Luckily for me, I had a stop loss order and got out of my short position relatively unscathed.

The price of oil is behaving as though something serious is going to aspire, that only the 'big money' understand.

The other day I put AU$30 in my car and it catered for 18.5 litres of Unleaded Petrol, this will only last me perhaps three days.

This is a problem guys. To all economies world wide.

p.s Cadmus - do you want to compare notes?

This is my chart of oil traded on NYMEX.

[Mygdonia]

better chart

[PhiliptheUniterchaeronea]

The problem lies much more in everything else oil is connectedto, not what you use to drive. It is unbelievable, how much oil will affect the rise in so many things to the consumer. If it were so simple to think it was just our cars, then we could cope. Unfortunately, so much more will hit our purchaisng power because of it.

[Tsontos]

How much is petrol/ gasoline in America and Greece these days? Right now in Aus its $1.57AUD/litre which is 95 Euro cents and $1.5USD


brighter countries have more expensive gasoline/ petrol:




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrol_prices

[Mygdonia]

The trading pits where crude oil is being traded is losing the plot.

NEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - The upward limit for U.S. crude oil futures on

the New York Mercantile Exchange was expanded to $20 on Friday after the

heating oil contract hit its own upward limit, NYMEX said.

The gasoline upward limit was also doubled.

"The rules call for all those three contracts -- crude, heating oil and

gasoline -- to have their maximum fluctuations doubled after any one of them

hits the limit," said Anu Ahluwalia, the NYMEX spokeswoman.

U.S. heating oil futures trading was halted briefly on the electronic

trading platform CME Globex Friday after they struck the maximum fluctuation of

25 cents.

"The trading on heating oil was halted at 1:13 p.m. EDT and resumed some

three minutes or so later," Ahluwalia said.

NYMEX trading on the floor was not affected, she said.

Traders were confused and some said they did not even know that a trading

halt had been imposed.

Current rules on floor trading call for a trading halt for five minutes if

a contract hits the fluctuation limit and trades continuously at or above that

level for five minutes.

Ahluwalia said that the resumption of heating oil trading after the brief

pause called for the doubling of the fluctuation, to 50 cents, which must be

hit before another trading halt is called.

The fluctuation limit for crude now stands at $20 and for RBOB gasoline at

50 cents, she said.

(Reporting by Gene Ramos; Editing by John Picinich)

(Gene.ramos@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6054;

Reuters Messaging: gene.ramos.reuters.com@reuters.net))

Keywords: MARKETS ENERGY HEATOIL

[Mygdonia]

Some news from London

LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices, which last month hit

a record high above $135 a barrel, will probably rise to $140

soon, the head of Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on

Friday.

Investment bank Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street's biggest

energy traders, was even more bullish, saying on Friday that

crude <CLc1> may reach $150 by July 4 due to robust Asian demand

and falling inventories.

"The general trend is for the price to continue up and up,"

Shokri Ghanem, head of NOC, told Reuters in a telephone

interview. "I think pretty soon it will reach $140."

The Morgan prediction helped send oil above $134 on Friday,

bringing the market within sight of the all-time high of $135.09

reached on May 22. Oil has risen from $100, a once unthinkable

price, in January.

"We are calling for a short-term spike in oil prices,"

Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer said in a research note.

"Middle East oil exports are stable, but Asia is taking

an unprecedented share."

Both forecasts came a day after Benoit de Vitry, a managing

director at Barclays Capital, said at the Reuters Energy Summit

he expected to see oil at $150 this year, though that did not

mean it would remain at that level.

Barclays has taken a consistently bullish view on

commodities and expecially on oil.



WEAK DOLLAR

Dollar weakness and comments from Israel's transport

minister that an attack on Iranian nuclear sites looked

"unavoidable" also fuelled the latest price rise.

Libya and fellow members of the Organization of the

Petroleum Exporting Countries have blamed factors other than

supply for oil's record run, such as the weak dollar, political

tension and speculation.

Others point to oil market fundamentals like supply and

demand. Morgan Stanley said global supply is "stagnant."

Crude's six-year rally from below $20 in early 2002 has made

oil-market bears an increasingly rare breed. The lowest forecast

among 33 banks polled by Reuters as of May 23 is for oil to

average $92.30 this year.

Among the most bullish is Goldman Sachs, the most active

investment bank in energy markets, which said last month oil

could hit $200 within the next two years, driven by poor supply

growth.

Ghanem reiterated OPEC's view that the group does not need

to boost production and that the choppy trading of recent days

showed that prices were being driven by factors outside its

control.

"This is a real example of the speculation," he said. "What

can we do?"

(Reporting by Alex Lawler, editing by James Jukwey)

((+44 207 542 4087, alex.lawler@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging:

alex.lawler.reuters.com@reuters.net))

Keywords: LIBYA OIL/

[Foti66]

Originally Posted by Mygdonia

I trade infrequently...but to my own stupidity I thought oil was to fall a few dollars after peaking at the fibonacci extention @ 1.618.

Luckily for me, I had a stop loss order and got out of my short position relatively unscathed.

The price of oil is behaving as though something serious is going to aspire, that only the 'big money' understand.

The other day I put AU$30 in my car and it catered for 18.5 litres of Unleaded Petrol, this will only last me perhaps three days.

This is a problem guys. To all economies world wide.

p.s Cadmus - do you want to compare notes?

This is my chart of oil traded on NYMEX.

I trade frequently. Above all other analysis, the trend is your friend. Don't fight a trending market. Nobody on this planet knows when it will stop and go the other way. Nobody on this planet can successfully predict where it will be in the future. Successfull trading involves exploiting an edge. What better edge than a trend? Simply find good places to enter in the direction of the trend and use tight money management incase your timing is wrong.

[Mygdonia]

Hey Foti - do you trade futures?

[Foti66]

Hey Mygdonia, yes I trade futures. I have been involved for some 20 years. It is nice to be in Chicago (Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Chicago Board of Trade). I spent time on both exchanges. Now they have gone mostly electronic. I remember when Globex was first introduced. I was so excited. I tried to develop a scalping skill to trade the e-mini S&P. I tried for years but couldn't quite adapt to it. Nowadays I look for trending markets and try to jump on board. When I am active I like to swing trade holding a position for a 2 to 3 days looking for a quick profit. How about you my friend?

[Mygdonia]

I certainly don't have the experience you have.

I am trying to develop a trading style at the moment. I am not really paper trading as you can't learn to ride a bike reading a book. So I am currently trading in small amount untill I develop a style I am comfortable with.

I have developed a mechanical trading system which I have back tested and results are quite good and slowly going through the process of putting the final touches to it.

It's a combination of pre alerts that i designed with 3-8ma xover confirmation.