Mygdonia
12-04-2007, 02:29 PM
:)
Armament in Middle East and Turkey
Monday, December 3, 2007
Ali KÜLEBÝ
Resources of the industrialized countries, which sold any kind of consumer and producer goods to underdeveloped countries in the past, are diminishing now. Therefore, from now on, the only goods these countries can densely sell are technologically advanced goods and particularly sophisticated arms. The fact that world wars and similar big conflicts erupted among countries in past is now impossible, and, the assumption that future new wars would mostly be regional, we must assume that these kind of regional wars will be more than necessary for arms-producing countries in terms of their contribution to the economies of those countries.
Between 1980 and 1988, the Iran-Iraq war resulted with nearly one million casualties and material damages worth 150 billion dollars and heavy destruction in both countries had been a “generous” war for arms producers in terms of expansion the arms market and the test for the newly developed arms. After that, war significant conflicts did not erupt except Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the consequent U.S. intervention in the region, and after 9/11 and the U.S. military invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. Although those invasions drastically contributed to the U.S. arms industry, they did not play a significant role in contributing to the Russian and European arms industries in particular. The Russian Federation, the heir of the USSR that had sold a large number of cheap arms especially to the Third World countries in the Cold War period, was deprived of this chance in that period, too.
Middle East and armament
However, the hyperbolic assessment of the developments in world politics and the distress has, in recent days, had a significant train of expansion of armament and the arms race especially in our near neighborhood. In particular, against the recent U.S. decision to send military aid to the countries in region, using Iran as an excuse, the Iranian declaration, that it would buy a large number of arms from Russia that challenges the U.S., is a critically important development for Middle East and Turkey as well. It can be said that the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Defense Secretary Robert Gate's visits to Middle East at the end of July 2007 set fire of this new arms race in Middle East. In this regard, it was declared that military aid would be funneled to Egypt worth $13 billion and Israel worth $30 billion. Again, it was declared that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries that are directly under military threat of Iran would also receive military aid. Against Syria, which is a threat for Israel due to its close stance with Hamas and Hezbollah and with Iran in recent days as well as its declaration that it will never hand over the Israeli occupied Golan Heights, the U.S., which backs countries in the region and pushes the Moderate Islam project, has made a step that will contribute to its arms industry as well. In this way, the need for potential order for developing and implementing new technologies by arms producers are guaranteed while a new step is being taken for new various prospective operational plans by the U.S. army, too. While such developments are taking stage in Middle East for the U.S., a European country, France, which is in a depression of sales in arms and fighters in particular due to its difficulty of finding a market, has to find additional resources for the production and the export in order to reduce its unit cost of the produced arms for the sake of its armed forces. Therefore, it, with an opportunist approach, chose Libya. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as if he were a business executive, drew up rapidly alongside Libya with the project including his wife as well. For as much as the Libyan leader Muammar Khaddafi was already ready for such a drawing because he wanted to give an end to the arms embargo embarked upon Libya for long years. Following the decision taken by Libya, which had a controversial bargaining with France that ended with the release of Bulgarian nurses who were sentenced with death, to buy Milan anti-tank missiles and Tetra wireless communication systems produced by EADS in worth 296 million Euros. But almost immediately after these interesting news another and maybe more significant arms deal has been published. And this time it was between Russia and Iran.
Arms trade between Iran and Russia
A short while ago some news claiming that Russia would sell approximately 250 SU-30 MKM long range fighters and 20 IL-78 MKI fuel-tankers to Iran appeared at some Israeli- based websites. Despite the fact that these news have been declared to be untrue and rejected by the Iranian Defense Minister Mohammed Nacar later, it is a well-known fact that such serious arms procurement agreements had been signed between Iran and the Russian Federation in the past. But still, it seems impossible to sell 250 attack aircraft as well as 20 tanker aircraft that could increase strike range of those aircraft for Iran. According to “The Jane's Defence Weekly's” reports of January 2007, Tehran "is investing considerable resources in generating enhanced operational aerial refuelling capabilities to support strike assets capable of delivering such systems," notably involving the Sukhoi aircraft. The Jane's report said the longer-range capability being developed by Iran could, in theory, be used to deliver nuclear weapons.
But The Jane's Defence Weekly's also cautioned that Iran may be just exaggerating its capabilities as a deterrent to potential Western attack, noting that it had done so in the past. "Whether Iran can develop a long-range strike capability to the degree that it presents a credible and potent strategic threat to those regional actors likely to be the recipient of such an attack is a moot point.
"The question remains how committed Iran is to the development of such a capability or if it is just another tactic designed to deter potential aggression and reinforce its image as a growing regional power," it said.
Russia, which is an important arms provider for Iran, argued that Iran could not threaten any country because its aircraft and anti-missile systems like the TOR-M1 that it had bought from Russia, because they are defensive. But at this arms business or at the future potential arms deals in offensive nature with Iran Russia has to think twice about selling platforms such as sophisticated attack aircraft to Iran due to its sensitive relations with the US and the Gulf countries.
The SU-30 fighters with double-pilots, which Iran intended to buy, could carry approximately 8 tons of ammunition. With a range of 1600 miles it can reach to 2800 miles with an in-flight refueling. It is implied by aviation pioneers that its performance is equivalent with the F-16 Block 50 that we Turkey has in service and the F/A-18 Hornet and the F-15 Eagle in the US aircraft inventory. And it is clear that a possible large number of Iranian arms purchases of technologically-advanced aircraft, with nearly 250 aircraft, would trouble especially the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, another false claim of this news seems whether Iran is capable of assimilating and maximizing such power in usable levels, and whether it prefers to bring into such a burden in terms of its military strategy. Because, the US and Israel, the two big powers against Iran, have technologically very advanced air defense missiles like the PAC-III and Arrow and various fighters. In this respect, It would be more convenient and safe for Iran rather than hitting the targets at enemy countries by fighters, Iran, can easily do this by ballistic missiles like Shahab I-II-III-IV developed by its own manufacturers. It is more realistic that using the SU-30 attack fighters contradicts with the Iranian military concept because such a move risks its Air Forces. Therefore, it can be said that the reason behind such an Israeli claim that Iran would buy a large number of fighters, seeks to increase the defense budgets of the US and Israel and sell more arms to the Middle Eastern countries. In this regard, it can be expected that the Gulf countries and especially Saudi Arabia can increase their arms purchases including air defense systems, notably the Aegis in particular. Such a rumor of arms purchases will undoubtedly bring benefit to the arms producers in the US.
With the capacity of performing a 4.5-hour combat mission with a range of 3,000 km and with an in-flight refueling system the SU-30 MKM which increases the flight duration up to 10 hours with a range of 8,000 km and some other Sukhoi types are used by countries ahead India, Malaysia, and Algeria. Lastly, it has been declared that Venezuela, too, would buy these fighters. However, the fact that some avionic systems of these fighters are produced by the French defense company Thales, and that therefore, the sale of these fighters would cause a problem between Russia- France and the US is another sign of that this sale is not realistic as well.
In this sense another point that should be touched upon is that the Russian arms trade with Iran is a long-standing fact. In past, notably since 1992, Russia has sold several arms systems to Iran. Among them there were MÝG-29 jet fighters, T-72 battle tanks and air-to-air missiles. Since 2002, Russia sold advanced TOR M-1 air defense missile systems to Iran and between 2002 and 2005 the Russian arms sale to Iran was worth $1.7 billion. However economic aspect of Russian relations with the US and the world countries reveals that Russia cannot back a country with which it is in a competition on oil and natural gas like Iran. Therefore it is rationally expected from Russia to sell arms that that do not provoke Iran's neighbors that could also be can be accepted by the Western countries.
Developments in connection with Turkey
While developments on arms purchase in Middle East and arms race of most of our neighbors in Middle East continuing, it is not a correct approach to claim that Turkey which has the most powerful and technologically-superior army besides Israel will be under serious-threat due to these developments. Today the primary and the particular threat for Turkey is not the Middle Eastern or Near Eastern countries where our brothers live but it is Greece, which aims to weaken us by every means and supports the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and which overcharges us at every international platform, and makes alliances with our neighboring countries against us. It is absolutely clear that if Greece believes that it has reached our military power at one day, it would certainly attack Turkey without any question. One of the leading arms purchasers in the world, Greece, configures its armament completely against Turkey. It wants to fulfill its purpose by its surrounding strategy like a crescent around us from Limni Island to Cyprus. As it attempted in past, it can be expected from Greece to extend its strategy in order to ensure allies with the Kurdish groups in northern Iraq.
In this regard Turkey should strengthen its air and naval forces against the Greek aims in the west, particularly against Greece's economic interests in the Aegean Sea and its plans on the petroleum basins around Cyprus that seem to trouble us in future. Therefore, the Turkish Armed Forces that has expedited its preparations especially in recent month increased its defense budget by 10.6 percent as per 2006 to $9.5 billion in 2007. From now on Turkey, in accordance with National Defense Concept, has come to a point that it will break through by several defense projects to be produced fully or partially by itself.
To achieve these goals Turkey defined different “Technology Activity Fields” and “Technology Areas” that will be studied on this way to have a modern army that can counter threats coming around us in the forthcoming process. In this context, the Turkish Armed Forces considered 11 “Technological Activity Fields” and 109 “Technology Areas” in accordance with the preferential and long term requirements.
Today in response to increasingly transforming peripheral military threats, plans have been made on one of our significant deficiencies, on long range air defense missile systems estimated to cost approximately $1.2 billion. By this project, it would be possible for Turkey to counter to ballistic missile threats escalating from our neighborhood.
Armament in Middle East and Turkey - Turkish Daily News Dec 03, 2007 (http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=90178)
Armament in Middle East and Turkey
Monday, December 3, 2007
Ali KÜLEBÝ
Resources of the industrialized countries, which sold any kind of consumer and producer goods to underdeveloped countries in the past, are diminishing now. Therefore, from now on, the only goods these countries can densely sell are technologically advanced goods and particularly sophisticated arms. The fact that world wars and similar big conflicts erupted among countries in past is now impossible, and, the assumption that future new wars would mostly be regional, we must assume that these kind of regional wars will be more than necessary for arms-producing countries in terms of their contribution to the economies of those countries.
Between 1980 and 1988, the Iran-Iraq war resulted with nearly one million casualties and material damages worth 150 billion dollars and heavy destruction in both countries had been a “generous” war for arms producers in terms of expansion the arms market and the test for the newly developed arms. After that, war significant conflicts did not erupt except Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the consequent U.S. intervention in the region, and after 9/11 and the U.S. military invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. Although those invasions drastically contributed to the U.S. arms industry, they did not play a significant role in contributing to the Russian and European arms industries in particular. The Russian Federation, the heir of the USSR that had sold a large number of cheap arms especially to the Third World countries in the Cold War period, was deprived of this chance in that period, too.
Middle East and armament
However, the hyperbolic assessment of the developments in world politics and the distress has, in recent days, had a significant train of expansion of armament and the arms race especially in our near neighborhood. In particular, against the recent U.S. decision to send military aid to the countries in region, using Iran as an excuse, the Iranian declaration, that it would buy a large number of arms from Russia that challenges the U.S., is a critically important development for Middle East and Turkey as well. It can be said that the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Defense Secretary Robert Gate's visits to Middle East at the end of July 2007 set fire of this new arms race in Middle East. In this regard, it was declared that military aid would be funneled to Egypt worth $13 billion and Israel worth $30 billion. Again, it was declared that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries that are directly under military threat of Iran would also receive military aid. Against Syria, which is a threat for Israel due to its close stance with Hamas and Hezbollah and with Iran in recent days as well as its declaration that it will never hand over the Israeli occupied Golan Heights, the U.S., which backs countries in the region and pushes the Moderate Islam project, has made a step that will contribute to its arms industry as well. In this way, the need for potential order for developing and implementing new technologies by arms producers are guaranteed while a new step is being taken for new various prospective operational plans by the U.S. army, too. While such developments are taking stage in Middle East for the U.S., a European country, France, which is in a depression of sales in arms and fighters in particular due to its difficulty of finding a market, has to find additional resources for the production and the export in order to reduce its unit cost of the produced arms for the sake of its armed forces. Therefore, it, with an opportunist approach, chose Libya. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as if he were a business executive, drew up rapidly alongside Libya with the project including his wife as well. For as much as the Libyan leader Muammar Khaddafi was already ready for such a drawing because he wanted to give an end to the arms embargo embarked upon Libya for long years. Following the decision taken by Libya, which had a controversial bargaining with France that ended with the release of Bulgarian nurses who were sentenced with death, to buy Milan anti-tank missiles and Tetra wireless communication systems produced by EADS in worth 296 million Euros. But almost immediately after these interesting news another and maybe more significant arms deal has been published. And this time it was between Russia and Iran.
Arms trade between Iran and Russia
A short while ago some news claiming that Russia would sell approximately 250 SU-30 MKM long range fighters and 20 IL-78 MKI fuel-tankers to Iran appeared at some Israeli- based websites. Despite the fact that these news have been declared to be untrue and rejected by the Iranian Defense Minister Mohammed Nacar later, it is a well-known fact that such serious arms procurement agreements had been signed between Iran and the Russian Federation in the past. But still, it seems impossible to sell 250 attack aircraft as well as 20 tanker aircraft that could increase strike range of those aircraft for Iran. According to “The Jane's Defence Weekly's” reports of January 2007, Tehran "is investing considerable resources in generating enhanced operational aerial refuelling capabilities to support strike assets capable of delivering such systems," notably involving the Sukhoi aircraft. The Jane's report said the longer-range capability being developed by Iran could, in theory, be used to deliver nuclear weapons.
But The Jane's Defence Weekly's also cautioned that Iran may be just exaggerating its capabilities as a deterrent to potential Western attack, noting that it had done so in the past. "Whether Iran can develop a long-range strike capability to the degree that it presents a credible and potent strategic threat to those regional actors likely to be the recipient of such an attack is a moot point.
"The question remains how committed Iran is to the development of such a capability or if it is just another tactic designed to deter potential aggression and reinforce its image as a growing regional power," it said.
Russia, which is an important arms provider for Iran, argued that Iran could not threaten any country because its aircraft and anti-missile systems like the TOR-M1 that it had bought from Russia, because they are defensive. But at this arms business or at the future potential arms deals in offensive nature with Iran Russia has to think twice about selling platforms such as sophisticated attack aircraft to Iran due to its sensitive relations with the US and the Gulf countries.
The SU-30 fighters with double-pilots, which Iran intended to buy, could carry approximately 8 tons of ammunition. With a range of 1600 miles it can reach to 2800 miles with an in-flight refueling. It is implied by aviation pioneers that its performance is equivalent with the F-16 Block 50 that we Turkey has in service and the F/A-18 Hornet and the F-15 Eagle in the US aircraft inventory. And it is clear that a possible large number of Iranian arms purchases of technologically-advanced aircraft, with nearly 250 aircraft, would trouble especially the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, another false claim of this news seems whether Iran is capable of assimilating and maximizing such power in usable levels, and whether it prefers to bring into such a burden in terms of its military strategy. Because, the US and Israel, the two big powers against Iran, have technologically very advanced air defense missiles like the PAC-III and Arrow and various fighters. In this respect, It would be more convenient and safe for Iran rather than hitting the targets at enemy countries by fighters, Iran, can easily do this by ballistic missiles like Shahab I-II-III-IV developed by its own manufacturers. It is more realistic that using the SU-30 attack fighters contradicts with the Iranian military concept because such a move risks its Air Forces. Therefore, it can be said that the reason behind such an Israeli claim that Iran would buy a large number of fighters, seeks to increase the defense budgets of the US and Israel and sell more arms to the Middle Eastern countries. In this regard, it can be expected that the Gulf countries and especially Saudi Arabia can increase their arms purchases including air defense systems, notably the Aegis in particular. Such a rumor of arms purchases will undoubtedly bring benefit to the arms producers in the US.
With the capacity of performing a 4.5-hour combat mission with a range of 3,000 km and with an in-flight refueling system the SU-30 MKM which increases the flight duration up to 10 hours with a range of 8,000 km and some other Sukhoi types are used by countries ahead India, Malaysia, and Algeria. Lastly, it has been declared that Venezuela, too, would buy these fighters. However, the fact that some avionic systems of these fighters are produced by the French defense company Thales, and that therefore, the sale of these fighters would cause a problem between Russia- France and the US is another sign of that this sale is not realistic as well.
In this sense another point that should be touched upon is that the Russian arms trade with Iran is a long-standing fact. In past, notably since 1992, Russia has sold several arms systems to Iran. Among them there were MÝG-29 jet fighters, T-72 battle tanks and air-to-air missiles. Since 2002, Russia sold advanced TOR M-1 air defense missile systems to Iran and between 2002 and 2005 the Russian arms sale to Iran was worth $1.7 billion. However economic aspect of Russian relations with the US and the world countries reveals that Russia cannot back a country with which it is in a competition on oil and natural gas like Iran. Therefore it is rationally expected from Russia to sell arms that that do not provoke Iran's neighbors that could also be can be accepted by the Western countries.
Developments in connection with Turkey
While developments on arms purchase in Middle East and arms race of most of our neighbors in Middle East continuing, it is not a correct approach to claim that Turkey which has the most powerful and technologically-superior army besides Israel will be under serious-threat due to these developments. Today the primary and the particular threat for Turkey is not the Middle Eastern or Near Eastern countries where our brothers live but it is Greece, which aims to weaken us by every means and supports the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and which overcharges us at every international platform, and makes alliances with our neighboring countries against us. It is absolutely clear that if Greece believes that it has reached our military power at one day, it would certainly attack Turkey without any question. One of the leading arms purchasers in the world, Greece, configures its armament completely against Turkey. It wants to fulfill its purpose by its surrounding strategy like a crescent around us from Limni Island to Cyprus. As it attempted in past, it can be expected from Greece to extend its strategy in order to ensure allies with the Kurdish groups in northern Iraq.
In this regard Turkey should strengthen its air and naval forces against the Greek aims in the west, particularly against Greece's economic interests in the Aegean Sea and its plans on the petroleum basins around Cyprus that seem to trouble us in future. Therefore, the Turkish Armed Forces that has expedited its preparations especially in recent month increased its defense budget by 10.6 percent as per 2006 to $9.5 billion in 2007. From now on Turkey, in accordance with National Defense Concept, has come to a point that it will break through by several defense projects to be produced fully or partially by itself.
To achieve these goals Turkey defined different “Technology Activity Fields” and “Technology Areas” that will be studied on this way to have a modern army that can counter threats coming around us in the forthcoming process. In this context, the Turkish Armed Forces considered 11 “Technological Activity Fields” and 109 “Technology Areas” in accordance with the preferential and long term requirements.
Today in response to increasingly transforming peripheral military threats, plans have been made on one of our significant deficiencies, on long range air defense missile systems estimated to cost approximately $1.2 billion. By this project, it would be possible for Turkey to counter to ballistic missile threats escalating from our neighborhood.
Armament in Middle East and Turkey - Turkish Daily News Dec 03, 2007 (http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=90178)